The world will be more at peace 🕊️ in 2025. Street art by Alessio B in Padova, Italy.
Our prognostications in 2024
Today, we review the predictions we made for 2024 a year ago, which you can view in full by clicking the story below. Later this week, we will publish our prognostications for 2025. As the caption to the street art to the 2024 post expressed—’2024 is going to be lit❤️🔥’— and we are pleased to report it was, and most of our dreams came true. The recap of how we did with our forecast follows below.
Bitcoin will break all-time highs, and Solana and Ethereum will move up.
As our readers well know, the price of Bitcoin, which was hovering around $38,000 a year ago, blew through its previous high of $68,789, achieved on November 10, 2021. In 2024, Bitcoin reached a high of $108,268, and as of the date of this post, BTC was at $97,533, representing a $121% boost year-to-date. Our other two picks, Ethereum and Solana, posted solid gains as well, with 47% and 78% year, respectively, but did underperform to the overall market, which is heavily weighted by BTC, which represents 51.4% of the total crypto market cap. According to CoinGecko, the total crypto market cap rose a whopping 118% from $1.7 trillion to $3.7 trillion in 2024.
In spite of our brand name, we are not crypto traders; our philosophy is to pick assets that we believe in and hold ‘em. We are still holding our BTC. 😎👍🏼 FYI, we are not picking crypto bets in 2025, as the market gauges we check in on are sitting in the greed zone, so we are waiting for the Trump Bump to settle down a little.
Top stock picks: Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Coinbase (COIN), Block (SQ).
The NASDAQ composite grew an impressive 33.6% in 2024. Three out of the four of our stock picks for the year, NVIDIA (up 191.7%), Coinbase (up 78.9%), and Apple (up 39.5%), outperformed the market, with Block still posting a sold 18% gain.
FYI, just as we are concerned about an overheated crypto market, we feel ditto about the stock market. Investor exuberance around AI, in particular, has driven up the S&P 500 157% since March 2020. Equity ownership as a percentage of household assets is also at all-time highs. We are feeling a little bit of the 1999 Internet Bubble vibe going on right now, so we are not recommending any stocks this time around. (We know a little bit about stock bubbles.)
For the last four years, only a handful of people knew who was in charge of the most powerful country in the world, and we can only guess who they were.
Biden will drop out—Trump wins and pardons both himself and Joe.
We were lied to constantly by our politicians and the media for four years—We knew it, and so did the rest of the world
'I have served with President Biden for almost four years now… And I have spent hours upon hours with him being in the Oval Office or the situation room. He has the intelligence, the commitment, and the judgment and disposition that I think the American people rightly deserve in their President.' 🤔
—Kamala Harris
'I've said it for years now; he's cogent. But I undersold it when I said he was cogent; he's far beyond cogent. In fact, I think he's better than he's ever been, intellectually, analytically, because he's been around for fifty years.' 😭
—Joe Scarborough, MSNBC's 'Morning Joe' host in March of 2024
Tucker Carlson: Who do you think has been making foreign policy decisions in the United States? This is a question in the United States.
Sergey Lavrov: I wouldn't guess. I haven't seen [US Secretary of State] Antony Blinken for years. I think it was two years ago, at the G20 summit. I was representing President Putin there. His [Blinken's} assistant came up to me during a meeting and said that Antony wants to talk just for 10 minutes. But we were meeting in front of many people present in the room.
Note: Trump and Vlad both expressed this week they want to meet up 'as soon as possible' about ending the nearly three-year-long war in Ukraine, so it looks like we are back in business and, soon, back on the Peace Train🚂
After Great Grandpa Joe had a ‘bad night’ with the Boogeyman debate, a tiny Cabal including Barak Obama and assorted politicians, Super Donors, and Hollywood players moved in to swap Joe out for his VP, Kamala Harris. At the time, we reminded everyone that 92% of California voters did not support Ms.Kamala's first run for President in 2020 when she was running behind Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders even though it is her home state, and predicted that ‘the rest of the country would soon see why, and vote accordingly or not at all.’ 🤷🏻♀️
The 2024 election saw about 2 million (156.3M-63.9%) fewer votes than the record-breaking 2020 election (158.4M 66.8%).
And yes, we still predict the Bogeyman will pardon himself—although it looks less likely there will be any convictions to pardon himself from. We still think Trump will pardon Great Grandpa Joe. After all, even the Bogeyman has the heart not to leave Joe hanging on his own, after he will invariably add his brother James and the rest of his family to his flurry of eyebrow-raising pardons.
We bet last year that the Meta/RayBand ‘creepy glasses’ would be viewed as out of fashion as Zuck’s Ceasar haircut, but kudos for making the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses a ‘surprise hit’ and praised for stylish design and performance, like the Boss’s new look.
The Apple Vision Pro era begins—while Facebook’s creep glasses and low-brow Quest goggles flop.
We confess we allowed our decades-long Apple cult membership that obviously fogged our view of the 2024 headset business. The Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses have emerged as a surprise hit in the wearable technology market, with estimates that Q2 2024 shipments could reach 500,000 units, with annual sales hitting 2 million units. At an average of $300 for each pair of shades, that’s respectable. We, as well as others, have privacy concerns about these glasses due to the potential for discreet recording, reminiscent of the ‘glasshole’ and negative stereotype issues with Google Glass.
On the goggle front, Apple sells the Vision Pro, which starts at $3,499, while the Meta Quest 3 starts at $499. Paying 7x for your Vision Pro translates into a higher visual fidelity, a more immersive and seamless mixed reality experience, and a much more stylish and comfortable design. While Morgan Stanley analysts predict Vision Pro could generate $4 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2027, it started off to a slower start than Apple had hoped, with estimates that suggest Apple may struggle to sell more than 500,000 Vision Pro units by the end of 2024.
So what do you do with your VR goggles? Boost VC founder Adam Draper says that ‘the most interesting thing about VR is that it now has two very clear demographics, the 10-20 year old, and then the 20+ year old.’
Strap on your VR goggles; Adam has some hot app tips for you.
10-20 years old:
GorillaTag: This is the generational social company in VR. You run around and play tag with friends… like a gorilla!
Derby: Hang out with friends and hit home runs for fun in VR. It’s an amazing community in which to chat and hang out.
Big Ballers: Fun and competitive sports in Virtual Reality with friends… and enemies.
Tradable NFTs did make a comeback, with sales volumes showing a significant uptick in late 2024. In November, total NFT sales reached $562 million, marking a 57.8% increase from October. The resurgence was primarily driven by increased activity among top collections, with CryptoPunks and Pudgy Penguins leading the charge.
Pudgy Penguins saw its floor price jump from 13 ETH to 20.9 ETH in early December.
While Ethereum remained the leading blockchain for NFTs, Bitcoin-based blockchains recorded a trading volume of $43.8 million, while Solana, Immutable, Mythos Chain, Polygon, Cardano, and Flow collectively contributed $47 million. The NFT market is projected to expand significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.28% between 2024 and 2028, potentially reaching a market size of $68 billion.
The romance between Wall Street and blockchain becomes official.
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) experienced substantial growth from $5 billion in 2023 to blow past $15 billion in 2024 and continue to expand exponentially. Analysts predict that this trend will drive the market to reach between $10 trillion and $16 trillion by 2030.
These numbers do not include stablecoins, which would add another $156 billion to the token pie.
Tokenized RWA growth has been fueled by increased institutional adoption, with major players like BlackRock entering the space and expanding into diverse asset classes, including government securities, private debt, and commodities.
Government and Crypto will find a middle-ground.
We basically whiffed on this one. The SEC, under the Biden Administration and its Chairman Gary Gensler, took a largely adversarial and antagonistic stance towards cryptocurrencies, characterized by stringent regulatory actions and a focus on investor protection, which left the US behind the rest of the civilized world. Gensler described the crypto world as the ‘Wild West, rife with fraud, scams, and abuse.’ That is true, but leaving the US without a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies—and the industry clearly here to stay—left the largest crypto country in the world handcuffed and painfully uncompetitive. to balance
Ripple launched a new stablecoin called RLUSD.
TheRLUSD is pegged to $1 and is now available on crypto trading platforms and payment services, including MoonPay, Bitstamp, Zero Hash, and Bullish, among others.
RLYEN? Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse foresees strong demand for yen stablecoins in Japan, citing the country's regulatory clarity on crypto and stablecoins.
In contrast, the European Union (EU) approved the Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCA) in 2023, providing a clear regulatory framework for crypto assets, and the UK government collaborated with industry stakeholders to develop regulations for stablecoins. Germany, Switzerland, Japan, and Singapore are also notable examples of countries that have put in the work to ensure consumer protection and market integrity while supporting the growth of the crypto industry. This will all change under the Trump administration, which we will highlight in our predictions for 2025 next week.
AI-powered blockchain dApps will take on cloud computing.
The death spiral of the Internet’s nefarious Walled Gardens happily continues. In 2024, AI dApps skyrocketed 372%, averaging 4.8 million daily unique active wallets (dUAW) in Q3 alone. Also in Q3, AI-powered dApps emerged as the leading category in the dApp industry, accounting for 28% of the industry's activity, surpassing gaming at 25%. AI-powered blockchain challenges traditional cloud computing-based apps by offering enhanced efficiency, security, transparency, and user control. , and user-friendly decentralized applications across various industries.
Cryptonite 300 top AI-powered blockchain dApps
DeepBrain Chain—An AI computing platform driven by blockchain technology, aiming to reduce computing costs for AI companies.
Figure Technologies—Provides blockchain-based solutions for financial services with integrated AI.
The Graph cofounder & CEO Yaniv Tal who is backed by Coinbase Ventures and has equity and token (GRT) upside.
The Graph—Known as the 'Google of Blockchains,' the graph uses AI to index and query blockchain data efficiently.
Ocean Protocol—Ocean Protocol is a decentralized data exchange platform empowering AI applications.
0G Labs (Zero Gravity Labs)—Decentralized AI operating system integrating blockchain technology
Uniswap—A leading decentralized exchange, incorporates AI to enhance its trading capabilities.
An AI startup shakeout will ensue in 2024.
While AI funding remained robust for AI company market leaders, with 49 top AI brands bagging $100 million or more in 2024, the AI startup landscape did indeed experience a significant contraction in 2024. Even still, big players like Stability AI, Anthropic, and Jasper AI experienced down rounds. Many early-stage AI startups, lacking profitable use cases, began to fail as AI shifted from novelty to necessity. Early-stage investment into AI startups slowed by 30% lower in the first three quarters of 2024 than the same period in 2023. When the dust clears, the entrepreneurial company law of nature is such that 90% of AI startups will fail.
Cryptonite 300 top AI companies that recently raised big bucks
Databricks—Raised $8.6 billion in funding at a $62 billion valuation, with plans to raise $10 billion total.
Perplexity is taking it to the bank (and saving our editors 70% of our research time). Our saviors: Johnny Ho, Aravind Srinivas, and Denis Yarats
Perplexity—The AI-powered search engine reportedly closed a $500 million funding round, valuing the startup at $9 billion after only 2 years in business.
xAI—Elon Musk's AI play raised $6B to bolster its battle against the genAI leader OpenAI which was valued at $157 billion last October when they raised $6.6 billion.
Tensions between the US and CCP will rise over Taiwan.
There is substantial evidence that tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan rose in 2024. The election of William Lai (Lai Ching-te) as Taiwan's president in January 2024, whom Beijing views as a ‘separatist’, has only heightened tensions. This political shift has prompted China to increase its large-scale military exercises and announced air and naval drills, increase usage of the China Coast Guard around Taiwan's outlying islands, and put other diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan.
The US has angered the CCP by congratulating Lai Ching-te’s victory, approving arms sales to Taiwan, including a $2 billion package in late 2024, and maintaining high-level diplomatic contacts with Taipei.
The biggest concern for the US is that our computer and defense industries are heavily dependent on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which manufactures a whopping 90% of the world's advanced chips. Most leading US tech companies, including Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm, rely on TSMC to produce their most advanced chip designs. TSMC's dominance in defense applications, including semiconductors used in F-35 fighters and other military-grade devices, is also a vulnerability for the US. The CCP's stance on Taiwan as part of ‘one China’ and its goal of ‘reunification’ create a constant threat of conflict and underscores the urgent need for the US to diversify its semiconductor supply chain and reduce its dependence on Taiwan.
Hollywood will consolidate, shrink, and move to a talent-to-fan model.
The entertainment industry, particularly Hollywood, experienced significant consolidation and contraction in 2024, as the fog left by the 2023 actor strikes is still clearing. If the Paramount Global sale to Skydance Media (run by Larry Ellison’s son, David Ellison) receives regulatory approval, the number of major legacy studios will reduced to just four. In 2024, approximately 15,000 jobs were eliminated across broadcasting, television, film, news, and streaming sectors. The number one entertainment content streamer, Netflix reduced its annual volume of original English films from 80-plus to about 20-30 movies. Overall, film production volume decreased by 5% in California during the third quarter so that the contraction will continue.
Web3-enabled innovation is beginning to play a crucial role in the following:
Secure credentialing and learning records: Tamper-proof blockchain verification of digital diplomas and certificates of an individual's educational journey, from primary school through professional development. Blockcerts is an example of a blockchain credentialling startup.
AI-powered personalized learning: Advanced algorithms are being used to tailor and adapt course content to individual learning paces and styles, often outside of traditional classroom settings.
Intelligent Virtual Assistants: AI-powered assistants developed to provide immediate feedback and guidance to students, complementing the role of human educators8.
Peer-to-peer learning: Enabling direct connections between learners and educators, bypassing traditional intermediaries.
Token rewards: Creating new models for educational engagement and using token rewards to incentivize learning and content creation. BitDegree is an example of a company in this space.
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs): Education-focused DAOs are emerging, allowing community-led decision-making on curriculum development and governance.
Open Campus, backed by Animoca Brands, Sequoia Capital, and Binance, is developing EDU Chain, a Layer 3 blockchain, to facilitate a ‘Learn Own Earn’ Dapps for learners and educators to improve accessibility, quality, and data ownership in education.
Based on the available data, there is mixed evidence regarding the continuation of fentanyl-related deaths in 2024. The CDC reported a record 12.7% drop in drug overdose deaths nationally from May 2023 to May 2024. However, the Department of Homeland Security expects fentanyl to remain the leading cause of narcotics-related deaths in the United States in 2024 and for the foreseeable future. Carfentanil, a fentanyl analog 100 times more potent than fentanyl, has also reemerged. Overdose deaths with carfentanil detected increased sevenfold, from 29 in January-June 2023 to 238 in January-June 2024
Until we start treating the addicted as people in need rather than criminals and are willing to offer them a safe space away from the cities—and get them high—we will live with Cartels, gangs, and deteriorating and unsafe cities. We are very passionate about this subject because it can be fixed.
In 2024, global Silicon Valley entrepreneurs continued to build on a new AI-powered, decentralized computing paradigm where online creators (i.e., all of us) will eventually own and control our content to browse, delete, download, or share at will. A vast new generation of Web3 dApps is emerging, and the migration away from the Big Tech, cloud-based apps that invade our privacy, turn our data over to governments, and trade us like commodities on the 'attention-span exchange' is in full swing. This transition represents a twenty-year, $200 trillion economic boom that will bring unbanked regions online, put the final spike in the back of poverty, and free us from the centralized powers who have lost our faith.
Overall, we are supremely inspired by how many areas of society and industry sectors are trending toward more individual and localized control ✊🏼😎. Feliz año nuevo para ustedes y sus families!
Cryptonite Weekly Rap’s paid members gain access to company and investor lists and analytics and enjoy invitations to private events and global summits. 💪🏼😎
We had to disappoint our pot-smoking, THC-infused gummy bear munching members (now about one in five Americans), but National Geographic is reporting there have been five recent scientific findings that change what we know about cannabis. While humans have been cultivating the plant for 12,000 years and using it as a psychoactive substance for at least 2,500, conventional wisdom holds that cannabis offers a safe, natural alternative for treating pain, nausea, muscle spasms, appetite, and post-traumatic stress disorder. But now, we’re learning that the drug isn’t quite as helpful and harmless as we thought.
Smoking only the best bud might not be so good.
The pain relief myth: Studies show it actually has mixed results for reducing pain in the general population, which led the International Association for the Study of Pain, a leading authority in pain research, to decline to endorse these drugs in 2021. (Read more here.)
Cannabis is harmless: Cannabis strains are much stronger than those you might have had in decades past. Cannabis use can also bring on delusions or paranoia, especially if it’s used daily. Cannabis addiction can develop and is quite common. (Read more here.)
A rare syndrome resulting from regular cannabis use is rising:Cannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome (CHS) involves reoccurring episodes of nausea, vomiting, and severe abdominal pain. It has landed millions in the emergency room, a number that’s doubled from 2017 to 2021 and could affect as many as 2.75 million people in the U.S. annually. (Read more here.)
Cannabis can negatively affect your heart: The THC in cannabis also affects blood flow, potentially leading to heart problems. People who use the drug regularly have a higher risk for heart attack, stroke, and other heart disease. (Read more here.)
Cannabis strains aren’t much different: We have all been taught that the Indica strain has a relaxing, sleep-inducing effect and that Sativa stimulates energetic creativity. However, mounting scientific evidence suggests that these labels are essentially meaningless, and the two strains have no significant chemical or genetic differences. That’s a big problem for consumers, who choose either indica or sativa for their advertised effects.
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Silicon Valley ‘25 is a gathering where entrepreneurs and risk investors share how emerging Web3 innovation will create new prosperity and address the world’s most pressing issues. We also celebrate the Cryptonite 300 top Web3 companies in the world. See the current program and other SV ‘25 details here.
Silicon Valley ‘25 is presented by Voting Block USA (VB USA), a 501 c3 non-profit, nonpartisan, grassroots project dedicated to educating the public on how Web3 innovation—including blockchain, AI, crypto, robotics, metaverse, and Greentech—can help create a more private, secure, efficient, and sustainable private and public sector.
Somewhere between the raw startups and the Unicorns are the blockchain, AI, and metaverse companies pioneering Web3 and offering the best equity investment ROI potential in the global Silicon Valley.
What you get behind the ‘paywall’ as a paid Cryptonite member
List and data profiles on 3,500 venture capital-backed AI/ML companies and blockchain/crypto companies, over 240 of which have made the C300 nomination list thus far.
List of the top Venture Capital funds invest in the top 300 private Web3 companies.
List of the top Web3 Influencers as ranked by top deal relationships.
The ability to nominate companies to the Cryptonite 300 competition for 2024!
