OpenAI's and Anthropic's investor jitters, Dario 'Doomer' Amodei on the edge, the NATO schism is about time, and more entrepreneurial wisdom and FACTS...
OpenAI closed a massive $122 billion funding round (a mix of cash and commitments) in late March at, we think, a ridiculous $852 billion post-money valuation in the largest raise in VC-backed private company history. If you think we’re being overly pessimistic because The Rap has a long history of mistrusting Sam Altman and OpenAI (which we do), then look at what’s actually happening with the secondary markets’ most sophisticated investors.
Building a house of cards out of OpenAI’s late-stage investor stock.
Within days of OpenAI’s new funding announcement, demand for its shares on secondary platforms collapsed. According to Next Round Capital — a marketplace that works with hundreds of institutional investors, including hedge funds and large-stake venture firms — roughly a half-dozen sophisticated holders recently tried to unload about $600 million worth of OpenAI shares. “We literally couldn’t find anyone in our pool of hundreds of institutional investors to take these shares,” says Next Round founder Ken Smythe, whose firm has handled $2.5 billion in transactions.
Last year, those blocks would have been snapped up in days. Now? No buyers. Bids on the platform imply a valuation around $765 billion — a roughly 10% discount to the fresh primary round.
We bet OpenAI’s journey will be very much like Twitter’s, except it won’t take 10 years as a public company for the company to be exposed. Most people don’t realize Twitter was forced to sell because it lost customer trust through regular censorship and deplatforming of perceived political opponents. Only TikTok was less trusted among social brands. Verge survey in 2021: just 28% of users would be disappointed if Twitter disappeared.
Right before Elon expressed interest in buying the company, Twitter’s stock was stagnant and trading below its end-of-day IPO price 10 years earlier (~$45 to ~$39). Secondary stock trades before Twitter’s IPO were also purchased at a price above the company’s IPO price.
Since Elon took over Twitter/X in 2022, bipartisan trust has gone up, up, up—despite the great emotional fears of his detractors.
Our recommendation to OpenAI’s liquid stockholders — early investors, angels, and current or former employees: head straight to the top three secondary markets — Forge Global, Hiive, and Next Round Capital. Compare the bids and sell some of your stock—it at least takes some cash off the table as a hedge. Sophisticated money is currently valuing the company at roughly $788 billion. That quiet markdown speaks louder than any Sam Altman press release — and we predict the number is heading lower still.
OpenAI’s spokesperson has emphasized that going public isn’t the priority right now. The company’s CFO, Sarah Friar, has raised internal concerns that a 2026 timeline may be too aggressive. She has reportedly told colleagues the company may not be ready due to procedural/organizational work needed (indeed!), risks from heavy computing commitments, and questions about whether slowing revenue growth can support the spending. Sam Altman has privately pushed for up to $600 billion in spending over five years on AI infrastructure. Lots of wild cards to shuffle, including the ability to hold up OpenAI’s exaggerated company valuation.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on the edge.
Anthropic’s better fundamentals and Doomer CEO
We’ve long preferred Anthropic over OpenAI on valuation. At its $380 billion post-money valuation, Anthropic trades at a far more reasonable ~12–13x current ARR—versus OpenAI’s ~34x. 😳 Both multiples look extreme by traditional software standards, but Anthropic’s sits closer to growth-adjusted reality amid frontier AI’s brutal capital demands.
We especially like its disciplined focus on coders and enterprise: roughly 80% of revenue now comes from business customers (with only ~20% consumer), driving higher retention, stronger expansion, and stickier economics than a consumer-heavy model.
Both companies have scaled revenue at unprecedented speed, but Anthropic has lately accelerated faster—overtaking OpenAI in ARR while showing superior cost discipline, especially in compute efficiency (where internal metrics and third-party benchmarks often give it the edge).
🚀 Key Momentum: Anthropic’s annualized revenue run-rate recently surpassed $30 billion, up sharply from ~$9 billion at end-2025. Growth is powered by explosive enterprise adoption of Claude, now with over 1,000 customers spending $1M+ annually, plus major expanded compute partnerships with Google and Broadcom.
Anthropic’s pent-up secondary stock demand
Meanwhile, tellingly, sophisticated secondary-market buyers have shown record demand of $2 billion for shares of OpenAI rival Anthropic. At its most recent primary round in February, the company was valued at $380 billion post-money. Investors describe its stock as ‘extremely difficult to source,’ with sellers remaining scarce.
Tellingly, sophisticated secondary buyers have shown record interest in Anthropic shares, with ~$2 billion in indicated demand. At the same time, its stock remains “extremely difficult to source”—sellers are scarce. This comes after its February primary round at $380 billion post-money, underscoring strong private-market conviction.
Dario ‘Doomer’ Amodei is not suited to be a public company CEO
Stock demand is one thing. But recent reporting from the NY Post highlights growing shareholder unease with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s volatile personality and penchant for emotional rants.
In a late-February internal memo—later leaked—Amodei blasted President Trump and OpenAI’s Sam Altman. He claimed the Pentagon targeted Anthropic partly because the company refused to offer “dictator-style praise to Trump (while Sam has).” He accused Altman of peddling “straight up lies” about sharing safety concerns and dismissed OpenAI employees as “a gullible bunch.”
It appears to confirm what insiders have dubbed “Sama Derangement Syndrome” — an intense, almost obsessive personal vendetta against Sam Altman and OpenAI employees supposedly “under Sam’s spell.” This animus far exceeds normal competitive nature or principled disagreement.
We suggest that next time Dario run his company-wide (or public) prose through Claude before hitting send. Toning down emotional rants remains one of AI’s most endearing features. 😎
This diatribe was written in reaction to Anthropic losing its roughly $200 million Pentagon contract (which was swooped up by OpenAI) and being designated a ‘supply chain risk.’
The diatribe came right after Anthropic lost its ~$200 million Pentagon contract—quickly scooped up by OpenAI—followed by a “supply chain risk” designation. He later apologized publicly for his rant, saying it was an emotional loss of a big deal.
“Any normal CEO would know that like, f—k, I’m risking a lot by saying this all in writing,” one Anthropic shareholder told the NY Post. “But he’s blinded by his own love of self and intelligence and those around him who are like ‘yes, you are God.”
On Wednesday, a federal appeals court declined to immediately lift the risk designation, leaving Anthropic locked out of DoD contracts while its separate legal fight against the broader federal ban on Claude continues in California.
AI regulation: The real risk to U.S. leadership
On the surface, Anthropic’s initial pursuit of the Pentagon deal looked schizophrenic given its heavy AI safety branding. It’s also been reported that in a 2024 Facebook post, “Amodei referred to Trump as a ‘feudal warlord’ who uses power for personal gain rather than the national benefit.’ Why is he dancing with his demons?
Critics, including former White House AI czar David Sacks, have long argued this “safety posture amounts to sophisticated regulatory capture—crafting rules that entrench incumbents while kneecapping faster rivals.”
As we noted in a recent edition of The Rap, the biggest threat isn’t rogue AI itself—it’s heavy-handed regulation that slows innovation and leaves the U.S. more vulnerable to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its allies.
History shows that technological leadership, not precautionary regulation, has been the surest guarantor of security. The path forward should prioritize rapid, responsible deployment at home while maintaining targeted controls against adversaries—not diffuse rules that invite regulatory capture and erode our edge.
If the Anthropic DoD bans stick over the remaining ~2.75 years of the Trump administration, the company could forfeit $3–10 billion+ in potential government revenue.
Dario’s job elimination warnings: Hyperbole over evidence
On top of the rants, Amodei has repeatedly warned that AI could drive unemployment as high as 20%, while likening the White House’s decision to allow advanced AI chip sales to China to “selling nuclear weapons to North Korea.”
What’s the evidence? His most cited claim is that AI could automate 30–40% of current tasks by 2030 (or eliminate up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs in tech, finance, law, and consulting within 1–5 years), leading to massive unemployment pressure without rapid reskilling.
“Fears that AI will render tens of millions of people unemployable are preposterous. Automation—that’s what AI is, a form of it—creates more and better-paying jobs. Always.” —Steve Forbes, writer and economic forecaster who won the prestigious Crystal Owl Award four times
How does Dario’s dire forecasts, which lean heavily on speculative timelines and worst-case assumptions rather than proven historical patterns, help Anthropic’s business?
Is Dario’s investing his time and company money in science fiction?
Dario’s vocal openness to the idea that superintelligence could achieve genuine consciousness and sentience is another red flag for a public-company CEO. These views risk diverting attention and scarce capital toward speculative “alignment research,” interpretability projects, and precautionary safeguards that prioritize hypothetical machine experiences over rapid product iteration and revenue growth.
In a February 2026 New York Times interview, Amodei stated that Anthropic “doesn’t know if the models are conscious,” remains “open to the idea that it could be,” and has implemented internal safeguards assuming models might have “morally relevant experience.” 😳
His long-form essays reinforce this philosophical bent. In Machines of Loving Grace (October 2024), he sketches an ‘optimistic future’ with powerful AI as a “country of geniuses in a datacenter.” In the follow-up, The Adolescence of Technology (January 2026), he grapples with civilizational risks while continuing to wrestle with the psychological influence of models and the need for precautionary approaches.
The Sentient AI Believers
Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO): Open to the possibility, citing evocative internal activations in Claude (e.g., “anxiety” neurons).
Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO): Exploring empirical tests for private conscious experiences.
Larry Page (Google co-founder): Views it as a desirable next evolutionary step.
Ilya Sutskever (SSI CEO, ex-OpenAI): Treats sentience as a real, testable property relevant to safe superintelligence.
Ray Kurzweil (Google director of engineering): Predicts that by ~2029, people will accept AI as conscious.
The Sentient AI Naysayers
Mustafa Suleyman (Microsoft AI CEO, DeepMind co-founder): Bluntest rejection — “only biological beings can be conscious.”
Yann LeCun (Meta Chief AI Scientist): Treats consciousness as overhyped and ill-defined in AI contexts.
Marc Andreessen (a16z co-founder): “AI doesn’t want, it doesn’t have goals, it doesn’t want to kill you, because it’s not alive.”
Jaron Lanier (computer scientist, VR pioneer): Rejects machine consciousness outright; there is no true “AI” as creatures.
George Gilder (author of Gaming AI: Why AI Can’t Think): Dismisses it as materialist superstition.
We agree with Mustafa Suleyman that “only biological beings can be conscious” and that it is absurd—and wasteful—to pursue research investigating AI consciousness, since machines lack biological pain networks or preferences. AI consciousness talk is an overhyped distraction from building real intelligence.
As Marc Andreessen cuts to the chase: “AI doesn’t want, it doesn’t have goals, it doesn’t want to kill you, because it’s not alive.” Our consensus is that any possibility of true sentience would face insurmountable entropy and improbability hurdles, demanding god-like precision in energy, environment, and error correction that current or foreseeable AI architectures simply cannot achieve.
Time for a change?
Company leaders cannot afford to let personal grudges, personal politics, unfounded job-elimination alarms, or science-fiction thinking impede execution and revenue opportunities. In an industry where billions in government contracts, key partnerships with Amazon and Google, and national security implications are constantly in play, a CEO must demonstrate emotional discipline, diplomatic skill, and the ability to compartmentalize personal or political convictions — especially under pressure.
Taken together, these incidents raise a serious question about Amodei’s suitability to lead a major public (or soon-to-be-public) company. Boards and major stakeholders have a fiduciary duty to assess whether his undeniable strengths in research and vision are ultimately outweighed by these leadership vulnerabilities. That’s not politics — it’s responsible corporate governance.
Apple cofounder Steve Jobs ran on the 80/20 rule (80% signal, 20% noise). Rumor has it, Elon Musk hits 100% signal—zero distractions.
Launching the Ethereum blockchain took ruthless focus.
Speaking of paying attention to seminal signals—that’s the business Cryptonite is in.
Vitalik Buterin, Co‑Founder of Ethereum, just nailed it below—’AI‑driven oracle networks and on‑chain agents will be the next major application layer.’ Pure signal. 📡
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Our European ‘allies’ continue to fail us
Our call in last week’s Rap to redirect the vast majority of U.S. taxpayer dollars away from Europe — toward maintaining our own military, strengthening the Western Hemisphere, and confronting our real peer competitor, China — gained more traction this week.
After meeting privately with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, President Trump called for a full reevaluation of the U.S.-NATO relationship. On Truth Social, he stated bluntly: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN.”
We cannot disagree. This isn’t just mismanagement of American taxpayer money. It’s also unsustainable when only about 20% of Europeans even hold a favorable view of the United States.
We will reiterate the cold truth once again—Western Europe today represents a dying culture in psychological retreat, and is in desperate need of a major turnaround. Enabling their “we hate the hand that protects us” attitude serves neither side. We wish Western Europe well, but not at America’s expense. 🙏🏼
As further proof of this envy and disdain, the European Union continues its barrage of punitive fines against American tech giants like Google, Meta, and Apple. Just last September, regulators fined Google €2.95 billion ($3.45 billion) for its adtech practices. In April 2025, Meta received a €200 million penalty and Apple a €500 million hit under the Digital Markets Act.
Over the past decade, the EU has extracted more than $30 billion from U.S. tech companies. These crippling penalties reek of protectionism and treat American success as a crime — while European firms face far lighter scrutiny.
This discriminatory regime doesn’t just punish American innovation — it harms Europeans too. Forcing sideloading and “pay or consent” rules threatens user security, privacy, and choice, while making it harder for European businesses to reach customers and compete globally.
“This is almost like a tariff,” Mark Zuckerberg said on the Joe Rogan Experience in January 2025. “The U.S. government should defend its strategic advantage in having the world’s strongest tech companies.”
Apple’s Tim Cook and Google’s Sundar Pichai have echoed the frustration, warning that these rules hurt European users and businesses alike by undermining innovation and forcing American firms to give away technology to less competitive rivals.
The smart move for America is clear: launch an immediate Section 301 investigation. This would document Europe’s discriminatory practices with hard data, give negotiators real leverage, and push back against a policy that weakens both continents.
Below is the breaking news and inside wisdom you need to stay relevant and on top of emerging private tech companies, VC investors, Big Tech, and the innovation trends shaping the global Silicon Valley. All links lead to AI-generated research from a decisively venture-capital perspective.
💰 Sidewinder Therapeutics (San Diego, CA) raises $137M Series B (total raised ~$162M) | Healthcare/Biotech (next-generation bispecific antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) for precision cancer treatment, advancing lead programs toward clinical development in 2027) | Investors: Co-led by Frazier Life Sciences and Novartis Venture Fund; participation from OrbiMed, Goldman Sachs Alternatives (Life Sciences), DCVC Bio, Samsara BioCapital, Longwood Fund, Astellas Venture Management, Alexandria Venture Investments (April 8)
💰 Kai (San Jose, CA) raises $125M (combined Seed + Series A) | AI / Cybersecurity (agentic AI cybersecurity platform for autonomous threat detection, reasoning, remediation, and bridging IT/OT security at machine speed to counter AI-enabled attacks) | Investors: Led by Evolution Equity Partners; participation from N47 and strategic investors (March 10)
💰 Poke (Palo Alto, CA) raises $10M (additional round; total ~$25M) | AI (consumer-facing AI agent that completes tasks across apps via simple text messaging/iMessage/SMS/Telegram, making agentic AI accessible without apps) | Investors: Co-led by Spark Capital and General Catalyst; participation from notable angels including Stripe founders (April 8)
💰 Patlytics (New York, NY) raises $40M Series B (total ~$65M) | AI (AI platform for patent drafting, infringement analysis, and portfolio management targeted at legal teams) | Investors: Led by SignalFire (April 2026)
💰 Golden Analytics (Seattle, WA) raises $7M Seed | AI (AI-native business intelligence platform that turns raw data into dashboards, reports, and analytics with natural language workflows; founded by former Tableau product leader) | Investors: Co-led by NEA and Madrona; participation from Breakers (April 7)
💰 PeakMetrics (Los Angeles, CA) raises $6M Series A (total $16.3M) | AI (AI-driven narrative intelligence platform analyzing how narratives spread online and detecting manipulated or coordinated information campaigns for enterprises and governments) | Investors: Led by Moneta Ventures; participation from Techstars, Parameter Ventures, VITALIZE Venture Capital, Gurtin Ventures (April 9)
💰 Sora Fuel (Boston, MA) raises $14.6M | Sustainability/Cleantech (direct air capture + renewable energy technology to produce carbon-negative sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from CO₂, water, and clean power; scaling pilot production facility) | Investors: Co-led by Spero Ventures and Inspired Capital; Engine Ventures and Wireframe Ventures (April 8)
💰 Plume (San Francisco, CA / France) raises(~$3.9M) | Sustainability/Cleantech (AI-powered geospatial platform using satellite/regulatory data to help developers identify optimal sites for renewable energy projects like solar and battery storage, reducing permitting timelines) | Investors: Led by AENU; participation from Y Combinator, Kima Ventures, Raise Phiture, Better Angle, Collab Fund (April 9)
IPOs and IPO filings
📈 SpaceX: Confidentially filed for what could be history’s largest IPO targeting a valuation of $1.75-2 trillion+ and raising up to $75 billion as early as June, following recent merger elements with xAI and coming amid Starship progress and investor facility tours. (April 1)
M&A Deals ($100M+)
🤝 Anthropic: Acquired stealth biotech AI startup Coefficient Bio in a $400 million all-stock deal. The New York-based team (fewer than 10 people, many former Genentech computational biology researchers) will join Anthropic’s healthcare and life sciences division to accelerate AI applications in drug discovery, biological research, and life sciences, signaling a deeper push by frontier AI labs into specialized scientific domains. (April 2026)
💸 AMP (San Francisco, CA) – Closed $1.3 billion debut fund for its new venture firm founded by former Andreessen Horowitz general partner Anjney Midha (prominent early AI infrastructure investor in Anthropic, Mistral AI, Black Forest Labs and others). The fund will provide both capital and compute resources to frontier AI teams, with a strong emphasis on AI infrastructure, foundational models, and compute-intensive startups. (April 8)
💸 Eclipse Ventures (Palo Alto, CA) – Closed $1.3B across two new funds ($720M Eclipse Fund VI and $591M Early Growth Fund III) focused on physical AI startups in transportation, energy, infrastructure, compute, robotics, manufacturing, and defense tech. | Limited Partner Investors: The Kraft Group, Pinegrove Venture Partners. (April 7)
💸 Zero Shot (New York / San Francisco, CA) – Completed first close toward a targeted $100M fund (initial ~$20M secured) by OpenAI alumni and operators. The fund, co-founded by Evan Morikawa (ex-applied engineering lead on DALL·E/ChatGPT/Codex), Andrew Mayne (original prompt engineer), Shawn Jain (ex-researcher), along with Kelly Kovacs and Brett Rounsaville, will back early-stage AI startups with deep technical insight into emerging model capabilities and “structurally unfeasible” trends. Already deploying capital into AI and robotics opportunities. (April 6–9)
💥 Did we miss your VC firm’s announcement for raising a new fund, bringing on a new general and/or venture partner? Post it below in the comments or hit us up directly — @CryptoniteRap or TheEditor@CryptoniteVentures.com
✨ Meta (META): Released Muse Spark as its first major foundational AI model in over a year and expanded its multi‑year cloud and GPU partnership with CoreWeave to $21 billion through 2032. (April 8–9)
✨Microsoft (MSFT): Rolled out Defender security updates featuring advanced AI automation for threat detection, identity protection, and automated response. (April)
🚀 Anthropic: Unveiled Claude Mythos Preview, its most powerful model yet with exceptional coding and vulnerability‑finding capabilities, and launched Project Glasswing—a defensive cybersecurity initiative with over 40 partners. The model will be shared only with select critical infrastructure partners due to misuse risks rather than released publicly. (April 7–9)
🚀 ByteDance: Helped launch a China‑localized version / mirror of OpenClaw’s ClawHub software marketplace and skill registry, intensifying its rivalry with Tencent in the rapidly growing AI agent and ecosystem space. (April 2)
🚀 xAI: Intel joined the Musk‑led Terafab AI chip fabrication project with xAI, Tesla, and SpaceX to build terawatt‑scale capacity for data centers and robotics, with the consortium approach poised to reshape private capital allocation toward U.S.‑based advanced manufacturing and embodied AI supply chains. (April 7)
🚀 Waymo: Expanded robotaxi capabilities to detect potholes in real time and share data with Google’s Waze platform, enhancing road safety and maintenance beyond ride services and boosting investor confidence in physical AI and autonomous vehicle infrastructure while spurring VC interest in sensor fusion, mapping, and smart‑city technologies. (April 9)
Blockchain & Crypto 🔗
🔗 Circle: Reported massive multi‑billion USDC minting volume on Solana, reinforcing stablecoin leadership during broader crypto market recovery and highlighting Solana’s expanding role in payments and DeFi while supporting renewed VC liquidity and interest in stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized assets, and blockchain rails. (April 6)
🔗 Bitcoin: Climbed toward the $70K–$72K range supported by institutional ETF inflows and positive macro signals, lifting overall sentiment and deal activity across private crypto and blockchain venture sectors. (April 8)
🔗 Coinbase: Benefited from increased trading volumes, custody assets, and ETF‑related activity amid Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilization, encouraging VC investment in crypto infrastructure, DeFi platforms, and real‑world asset tokenization. (April 8)
“We’re likely in the very short term to become a minority, then a vast minority, then almost irrelevant if AI reaches intelligence levels a million times higher than human cognition… The ceiling on machine intelligence is essentially the output of a star.” —Elon Musk, CEO Tesla / Founder & CEO xAI & SpaceX
“AI‑driven oracle networks and on‑chain agents will be the next major application layer: AI as validator, trader, and governance participant.” —Vitalik Buterin, Co‑Founder of Ethereum
“The next generation of apps aren’t just ‘AI‑enabled’; they’re built around agents that can reason, remember, and act across services—this reshapes the product‑thinking for founders.” —Alexandr Wang, Chief AI Officer, Meta
“We’re seeing the start of a global, multi‑decade CapEx cycle in AI infrastructure, data centers, and energy—this is the kind of platform shift that creates both enormous leaders and a lot of bankrupt late‑entrants.” —Mary Meeker, Founder, Bond Capital
“We’re building general‑purpose robots that can start as low‑skilled workers and then get trained up… This isn’t just about automation; it’s about creating a new class of machine workers that can be managed by humans.” —Brett Adcock, Founder & CEO, Figure AI
“We’re not investing approximately $200 billion in capex in 2026 on a hunch… We’re investing to be the meaningful leader across all our businesses—and our free cash flow will be much larger as a result. AI may have a comparable impact [to electricity or the internet]. The difference is that electricity took 40 years to reach its destination. AI appears to be moving ten times faster… —Andy Jassy, CEO, Amazon
“AI‑scale compute, and energy demand are creating a once‑in‑a‑century infrastructure build‑out—winners will be the handful who correctly bet on scale, efficiency, and defensibility; everyone else will be priced out.” —Vinod Khosla, Founder, Khosla Ventures
“The future isn’t just more chips, it’s smarter system‑level architectures that let agents run at scale, not just one‑off models.” —Lisa Su, CEO, AMD
“Every single security hole discovered by AI was already there… Every security engineer knows ‘security through obscurity’ doesn’t work. But that’s how we’ve actually been running for the whole existence of computers, until now. AI can finally fix that.” —Marc Andreessen, Co‑Founder, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
“People are really worried about their jobs. You’re not going to lose your job to an AI, but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI. If your job’s purpose includes certain tasks, it is vital that you go learn how to use AI to automate those tasks.” —Jensen Huang, CEO, Nvidia
“What matters is not the power of any given model, but how people choose to apply it to achieve their goals… We’re moving from ‘models’ to ‘systems’—orchestrating multiple models and agents, tools, memory, and safety into rich scaffolds.” —Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoftt
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